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AAVEUSD long — 14 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 133.2066 and stopped out at 129.59 after 1.2 hours, closing at -2.71%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-14 20:24 |
| Entry | 133.2066 |
| Stop-loss | 129.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 136.0226 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 137.9 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 129.59 |
| Realized P&L | -2.71% |
| Time open | 1.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 2/4 mixed (5m/15m bull-aligned, 1h/4h mixed), 1h ADX 17.3 with +5.56 slope rising, ADX-20 12.5, ER-10 0.67 clean but ER-30 0.33 / choppiness 32.5 / Hurst 0.25 — AAVE's classic mean-reverting chop but with a strong fresh up-thrust; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: LONG — fresh net_move_4h +4.78% / 12h +5.36% / 24h +4.77% is a strong impulsive up-leg, OI accelerating_up (5m z +4.39), top-trader pos ratio 2.19 heavily long, ADX slope turning up. 3. THESIS: OI accelerating up (agg +3.98%, 5m z +4.39) into a fresh directional thrust that took price to the 5d high with top traders positioned 2.19 long — flow + positioning + momentum aligned on the long side. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m RSI 80-82 overbought plus taker ratio 0.976 (mild selling) means this thrust can exhaust and mean-revert hard; a break back below ~130 kills it. 5. LEVELS: entry 133.21, stop below the impulse base at 129.60 (dist ~2.7%, ~0.42x rv_24h — reasonable given AAVE's 5.2% avg daily range), take_profit_1 stretch at 137.90 (dist ~3.5%, R:R ~1.3, inside 4% clamp) at a modest extension above the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: strong momentum but overbought/chop character caps conviction.
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