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AAVEUSD long — 19 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 140.2888 and stopped out at 136.9 after 5.3 hours, closing at -2.42%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-19 21:42 |
| Entry | 140.2888 |
| Stop-loss | 136.9 |
| Take-profit 1 | 142.8155 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 144.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 136.9 |
| Realized P&L | -2.42% |
| Time open | 5.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA stacks bull-aligned with strong ADX (1h 47.3, ADX-20 48.7) but slope fading (-5.1), 5m/15m rolled bear, alignment 0/4 mixed, Hurst 0.55, HMM calm — a mature bull leg now pulling back intraday. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided — HTF trend is up and top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.63), but short-term momentum is negative (net_move_4h -1.58%, 12h -3.10%) and OI is bleeding (oi_5m_z -0.93, oi_change_recent_half -4.67%, accelerating_down); net I lean cautiously LONG with the dominant 4h/1h trend on a pullback into support rather than chasing the fade. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: 4h RSI 68 / bull-aligned EMAs + top_trader_pos_ratio 2.63 (strong long positioning) + agg OI +5.5% 24h and price +1.26% net 24h despite the intraday dip — the higher-timeframe trend remains up and the 12h -3% drop is a dip within it, holding well above 5d low. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI accelerating_down + funding_momentum negative signals longs unwinding; a break below the recent pullback low near 137 would confirm the fade wins and invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 136.9 (below the intraday pullback shelf and ~2.4% below mark, within rv-scaled range), take_profit_1 144.5 (reclaim of prior intraday value, ~3.0% up, R:R ~1.24). 6. EXPECTATION: mature fading trend with mixed short-term flow keeps this modest.
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