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AAVEUSD long — 21 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 147.85 and stopped out at 143.1 after 4.7 hours, closing at -3.21%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-21 20:38 |
| Entry | 147.85 |
| Stop-loss | 143.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 151.12 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 153.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 143.1 |
| Realized P&L | -3.21% |
| Time open | 4.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Full bull_trend — 4/4 MTF bull-aligned across 5m/15m/1h/4h, 1h ADX 34.8 rising (+0.79 slope), 4h ADX 37.3, Hurst 0.585, HMM calm 0.999; genuine strengthening uptrend though 4h RSI 70.6 overbought and RV at 99.5th pctile. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — momentum decisively up (net_move 4h +2.72% / 12h +3.94% / 24h +7.83%), price pinned at 5d/20d/90d high (-0.12%). 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + flow confluence — full MTF bull stack, top-trader pos ratio 2.27 heavily long, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.44, agg_oi +7.84%), taker ratio 1.34 buy-skew, all trend-aligned; price breaking to fresh highs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 70.6 overbought + RV 99.5th pctile + top-trader ratio fading (4h chg -0.093) means a sharp mean-reversion flush could hit; loss of the ~144 shelf invalidates. 5. LEVELS: entry 147.85; stop below the recent breakout shelf at 143.10 (-3.2%, within 7.8% ADR / 106 RV band); stretch TP at 153.30 (+3.7%, R:R ~1.15, inside clamps) — a reachable extension given 24h avg traversal 4.5%. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned with strong flow but overbought/high-RV caps upside probability.
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