AAVEUSD short — 24 Jul 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 94.1071 and hit its target at 91.05 after 18.2 hours, closing at +3.25%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-24 13:33 |
| Entry | 94.1071 |
| Stop-loss | 96.3 |
| Take-profit 1 | 92.2728 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 91.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.39 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 91.05 |
| Realized P&L | +3.25% |
| Time open | 18.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 — 5m/15m bear-aligned, 1h mixed, 4h bull-aligned; 1h ADX 13.9 (chop), adx_20 13.1, choppiness 46, ER_10 0.32 / ER_30 0.22 = weak/transitional non-trend, HMM calm high-confidence, Fear 28. This is choppy tape with a near-term downward tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is clearly down (net_move 4h -2.09%, 12h -1.52%, 24h -2.36%), OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -2.84, oi_15m_z -3.14, agg_oi_24h -5.44%, oi_24h -4%) — that OI unwind on a down move signals long liquidation/de-risking, favoring the short side. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh 4h down-thrust with OI bleeding out (positions being closed into weakness) and 4h liq skew 100% long (longs getting flushed); taker history recent bucket 0.53 (sellers pressing), macro risk-off (SPX -1.2%, VIX up) — trend-aligned on the active short-TF direction. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h EMA still bull-aligned and top-traders positioned long (pos ratio 1.49); a reclaim of the 5d-high area / bounce off oversold 5m RSI 28 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above recent structure at 96.30 (beyond intraday pivot, ~2.3% risk); TP stretch down to 91.05 near the 5d-low zone (mark is +6.46% above 5d low, room exists), ~3.25% reward for R:R ~1.4. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with a downtick means meaningful expire odds; p_tp1 43, p_sl 34, p_expire 23.
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