AAVEUSD short — 12 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 87.9597 and stopped out at 89.57 after 8.6 hours, closing at -1.83%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-12 22:11 |
| Entry | 87.9597 |
| Stop-loss | 89.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 86.9939 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 86.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 89.57 |
| Realized P&L | -1.83% |
| Time open | 8.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF 4/4 with all four TFs bear EMA-stacked, 1h ADX 19.3 rising (slope +2.4), choppiness 46, Hurst 0.42 (mild mean-revert), HMM calm — a modest but genuine, slightly strengthening bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly short — trend, fresh momentum (net -1.23% 4h, -2.06% 12h) and OI (accelerating_down, oi_15m_z -2.6, agg OI -2.2%) all point down. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is trend+flow confluence — full_bearish alignment across all TFs alongside accelerating_down OI momentum and negative funding z (-1.49) as shorts get paid to press; latest taker hour 0.68 (sell-heavy) confirms fresh selling. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio is long-tilted (1.52) and price sits only +1.7% off 5d/20d/90d low with z_score -1.74 (deeply oversold) — a reflex bounce off the low would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent 4h consolidation shelf / prior micro-high at 89.55 (structural invalidation, ~1.8% = ~1.2x rv-derived range); TP at 86.35 targeting a fresh push toward the 5d low, ~1.82% below entry, R:R ~1.0 and reachable within 24h (avg 24h traversal 1.4%, but momentum is fresh). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned short with oversold caveat and long top-trader tilt — p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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