AAVEUSD short — 13 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 87.9317 and hit its target at 86.9587 after 19.7 hours, closing at +1.11%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 13:54 |
| Entry | 87.9317 |
| Stop-loss | 89.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 86.9587 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 86.31 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 86.9587 |
| Realized P&L | +1.11% |
| Time open | 19.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 15.8 (weak), adx_20 13.5, choppiness 51, ER-10 0.11 / ER-30 0.14 (near-zero cleanliness), Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a low-conviction, chop-leaning tape with a mild bearish EMA tilt (15m/1h/4h all bear-aligned but weak ADX). 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly short-biased on trend structure, but there's a genuine near-term bounce signal — deeply oversold (rolling_z_20d -1.73, near 5d/20d/90d lows +1.6%), latest taker ratio 2.23 (heavy buy), top-traders long (pos ratio 1.47), OI accelerating_up — so this is genuinely two-sided; I favor the trend side (short) at low confidence rather than chasing a mean-revert bounce into an oversold zone. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: bear EMA stack on 15m/1h/4h plus fresh down momentum (net -1.41% 4h, -1.58% 24h) and negative predicted funding — trend-aligned short, though ADX is weak so this is a drift not a strong trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the oversold z-score (-1.73) + 2.23 taker buy spike + top-trader long positioning could snap a mean-reverting bounce that reclaims the 15m/1h EMAs, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 87.93, stop_loss 89.55 (above recent bounce structure / ~1.8% — near the 1h EMA reclaim zone, within ~0.5-1x of the 47% rv/1.46% 4h atr range), take_profit_1 89.55→down: target 85.85 gives ~2.08 reward:risk which clamps; place TP at 86.30 for ~1.85% (R:R ~1.0, a reachable structural push toward the 5d low). 6. EXPECTATION: weak trend + oversold bounce risk + chop keeps this uncertain with high expire odds.
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