BTCUSD short — 13 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,821.5 and hit its target at 63,394.6 after 1.6 hours, closing at +0.67%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 14:24 |
| Entry | 63,821.5 |
| Stop-loss | 64,520 |
| Take-profit 1 | 63,394.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 63,110 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 63,394.6 |
| Realized P&L | +0.67% |
| Time open | 1.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4 (5m bull, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bear_aligned), ADX_1h 13.7 with slope -1.96 (fading, chop-grade), adx_20 11.8, choppiness 59.3, ER_10 0.13 / ER_30 0.01 (near-zero efficiency), Hurst 0.38 (mean-reversion), HMM calm — a low-efficiency, chop_low_vol tape with a mild bearish tilt on higher TFs. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — 1h/4h EMA both bear_aligned, price -2.24% off 5d/20d/90d high, z_score -1.08 below trailing mean, OI momentum accelerating_down; but taker ratio ~1.0 neutral and top-trader pos ratio 1.56 long lean the other way, so it's thin. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the only trend-aligned cluster is the 1h/4h bear EMA stack plus accelerating_down OI momentum and price parked well below the 5d high — a low-conviction sell-the-rally in a range. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m already bull_aligned and top-traders net long 1.56 — a reclaim of the ~64,100 area would invalidate the fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,821; stop above the recent structure at 64,520 (~1.09% risk, well inside the ~1.5% avg daily range and rv_24h band); TP at 63,110 support (~1.11% reward, R:R ~1.02, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with weak edge — p_tp1 39, p_sl 34, p_expire 27.
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