BTCUSD short — 14 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 62,666.3 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 63,037.5 with a price move of -0.59%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-14 13:13 |
| Entry | 62,666.3 |
| Stop-loss | 63,410 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,134.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 61,780 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 63,037.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.59% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish (all EMA stacks bear_aligned), ADX_1h 27.9 with slope +5.3 (strengthening), choppiness 39.2 (trending edge), ER_10 0.66, Hurst 0.34 mean-reversion caveat, HMM calm — a genuine, strengthening down-trend, not chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — every TF bear_aligned, fresh down-impulse (net_4h -0.16%, net_12h -1.39%, net_24h -1.63%), price pinned at 5d/20d/90d low with rolling_z -2.48. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend cluster (4/4 alignment + strengthening ADX) plus OI accelerating_up into a falling market (oi_5m_z +1.99, oi_change 2.2% recent-half) = fresh shorts pressing lows — trend-aligned continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI oversold across 1h/4h (29-31), rolling_z -2.48, Hurst 0.34 and top-trader position ratio 1.49 long all argue for a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims the broken low. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 62,666; stop above the recent minor structure at 63,410 (~1.19% risk, within the ~2.2% 24h RV); stretch target 61,780 (~1.4% reward, R:R ~1.19, inside clamps) at a downside continuation extension. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but oversold-into-support, so meaningful bounce risk and expire odds.
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