SOLUSD short — 30 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 101.7815 and stopped out at 104.35 after 18.7 hours, closing at -2.52%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-30 23:53 |
| Entry | 101.7815 |
| Stop-loss | 104.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 100.0226 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 98.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 104.35 |
| Realized P&L | -2.52% |
| Time open | 18.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed/oversold, 1h/4h bull EMA but 1h RSI 28 oversold), 1h ADX 20 slope +5.4, 4h ADX 30.7, ER10 0.75 (clean one-way recent) / ER30 0.22 (nets nowhere longer), choppiness 35, Hurst 0.49, HMM calm — a cooling HTF uptrend that is actively rolling over into a sharp fresh downside push. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term evidence tilts short — price -3.77% 24h, net -3.76% 4h/-3.15% 12h, OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -4.36, momentum accelerating_down), taker 0.84 (sellers dominant). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — OI accelerating_down with deeply negative z-scores while price falls on clean ER10 0.75 means longs are unwinding into a directional slide, and the taker history is persistently sub-1.0; this aligns with the fresh 4h/12h downward momentum. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/15m RSI deeply oversold (28/25) and top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.18) — a snap reclaim bounce off the 5d low (+6.6% above) would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing/reclaim zone at 104.35 (~2.5% risk, within rv_24h ~2.9% traversal), target the stretch down toward 98.85 (~2.9% ≈ 1.16x stop distance, structural push toward the recent lows, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum is real but oversold RSI + top-trader long-crowding caps follow-through, so meaningful expire risk remains.
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