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AAVEUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 121.9055 and stopped out at 124.85 after 24 hours, closing at -2.42%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 12:48 |
| Entry | 121.9055 |
| Stop-loss | 124.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 119.7722 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 118.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 124.85 |
| Realized P&L | -2.42% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear-aligned with 1h ADX 42.8 rising (+4.96 slope), 4h mixed but 4h RSI 27 oversold; ER-10 0.76 confirms a clean recent down-leg, choppiness 45.6, Hurst 0.41 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a genuine active bear-trend leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — trend stack bearish across 5m/15m/1h, net_move_24h -5.68%, price sits at fresh 5d/20d/90d lows (dist_from_extrema 0.0). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment (4/4 EMA bear-aligned) + accelerating OI outflow (oi_5m_z -2.36, oi_15m_z -2.13, agg_oi_24h -8.6%) and taker sell dominance (1h ratio 0.888) — trend-aligned continuation lower, echoing the two prior AAVE shorts that won on nearly identical setups. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/15m/4h RSI deeply oversold (22-27) and rolling z -2.55 — a sharp mean-reversion bounce that reclaims the broken level would invalidate; top-traders remain heavily long (pos_ratio 2.21) which caps downside conviction. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 121.91, stop_loss 124.85 beyond the recent intraday pivot (~2.4% / ~1x atr context given 1h atr 1.08% and elevated 24h range); take_profit_1 118.35 (~2.9% below, RR ~1.2x, inside 4% clamp) targeting a measured continuation leg reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 2.4% and active trend. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold condition and long top-trader positioning temper downside odds; meaningful bounce risk keeps p_sl real and p_expire nontrivial.
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