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ETHUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,375 and stopped out at 2,411.5 after 21 minutes, closing at -1.54%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 17:43 |
| Entry | 2,375 |
| Stop-loss | 2,411.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,349.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,333 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,411.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.54% |
| Time open | 21 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear-aligned (4h mixed), 1h ADX 33.7 (strong) though slope -0.63 (just starting to fade), ADX-20 28.7, choppiness 51.5 (neutral-leaning), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a mature bear_trend in a fresh -2.66% 24h impulse now sitting at the 5d/20d low (dist_from_low +0.00%). 2. LEAN CHECK: short — trend stack, negative net moves across 4h/12h/24h, and OI unwind all point down; the main caution is oversold RSI ~33 and rolling z -2.57 (stretched), but there's no reclaim yet. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-alignment is the strongest cluster — bear EMA on 5m/15m/1h with ADX 33 confirms a real downtrend; supported by OI unwinding (oi_change_24h -2.5%, agg_oi -0.73%, oi_5m_z -2.82 decelerating) as longs bleed out and taker ratio ~0.99 slightly sell-tilted; ETHUSD track record short-biased and profitable this regime. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is pinned at the 20d low with RSI 33 and rolling z -2.57 — a decisive reclaim back above ~2400 with momentum flips this to a mean-reversion bounce; top-trader account ratio 2.22 also warns of a crowded contrarian long base. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2374.99, stop above the fading swing/reclaim zone at 2411.5 (~1.54% risk, within 1h atr/rv range), target the next structural leg lower at 2333.0 (~1.77% reward, R:R ~1.15, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: mature trend but oversold and stretched at lows — p_tp1 45, p_sl 37, p_expire 18.
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