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AAVEUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 155.79 and stopped out at 160.15 after 3 hours, closing at -2.80%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 01:35 |
| Entry | 155.79 |
| Stop-loss | 160.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 153.156 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 151.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 160.15 |
| Realized P&L | -2.80% |
| Time open | 3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Strong bear trend — EMA bear_aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), ADX_1h 44.8 rising (slope +7.6), choppiness 26.1 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.57, Hurst 0.44 (mild mean-reversion); net -2.0% 4h / -6.0% 12h / -8.7% 24h, price -2.59 z below 20d mean, sitting on 5d/20d/90d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: Not two-sided — fresh accelerating downside momentum (oi_momentum accelerating_down, OI z -2.25, OI -11% 24h) favors the short side; the only counter is deep oversold RSI (1h 27.7, 4h 26.6) and -2.59z, but no reclaim yet. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack + rising ADX + strongly-trending choppiness, with OI bleeding as price falls (liquidation/positioning unwind), and this asset's track record favors shorts in exactly this setup (3 prior wins +2.31/+1.59/+3.02%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: Oversold-bounce reclaim — a reclaim of ~158-160 with RSI unwinding would signal exhaustion and flip this to a counter-trend fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Stop above the recent swing/reclaim zone at 160.15 (dist ~2.8%, within the ~5.9% 7d range / 1.32% 1h ATR context); take_profit_1 stretch down at 151.90 (dist ~2.5%, R:R ~0.9... adjusting). Set TP 151.60 for R:R ~1.0 toward the next support leg below the 5d low. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum vs deep oversold caps p_tp1 modestly, meaningful bounce risk on the stop, non-trivial expire.
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