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DOGEUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.082422 and stopped out at 0.0844 after 2.2 hours, closing at -2.40%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 01:20 |
| Entry | 0.082422 |
| Stop-loss | 0.0844 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.080969 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.08 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.0844 |
| Realized P&L | -2.40% |
| Time open | 2.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish across 5m/15m/1h/4h, 1h ADX 38.9 slope +7.8 (strong and still strengthening), choppiness 28.2 (<38 strongly trending), ER-10 0.37/ER-30 0.33 (moderately clean down-path), Hurst 0.48 random-walk, HMM calm 99.72% — a genuine, strengthening bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — net_move_4h -1.6%, 12h -4.2%, 24h -5.0%, price -5% on the day sitting near 5d/20d/90d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short with flow confirmation — OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.72, agg_oi -11.3%, oi_momentum accelerating_down) as price falls = longs capitulating, taker ratio last several buckets sub-0.7 (0.57/0.89/0.58/0.64) persistent sell pressure. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader pos ratio 2.83 (smart money heavily long) and funding negative (shorts already paying) raise squeeze risk; a reclaim of the 1h EMA stack / move back above ~0.0836 (5d-high distance midpoint) would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.082422, stop above recent swing / invalidation at 0.08440 (~2.4% = ~1x the 24h traversal of 2.54%), target 0.080000 structural round/5d-low extension (~2.9% below, R:R ~1.2 inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but RSI 1h 32.9 oversold + top-trader long bias + oversold z-score -1.57 raise bounce odds, so keep meaningful p_expire.
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