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AAVEUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 155.83 and hit its target at 153.322 after 8.4 hours, closing at +1.61%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 14:20 |
| Entry | 155.83 |
| Stop-loss | 159.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 153.322 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 151.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 153.322 |
| Realized P&L | +1.61% |
| Time open | 8.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm transitional chop with a bear lean — EMA bear_aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), ADX_1h 17.7 fading (slope -1.17), choppiness 44.5 (neutral), ER-10 0.73 (near-term clean down) but ER-30 0.21 (longer-horizon nets nowhere), Hurst 0.43 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: Short lean — fresh downside momentum (net -2.78% 4h / -3.75% 12h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.69, oi_15m_z -3.84) = shorts/longs unwinding into the move, price -1.89 z below 20d mean sitting near 5d/20d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Momentum + flow cluster — ER-10 0.73 shows a clean near-term down leg with OI accelerating_down, trend-aligned with the bear EMA stack across 3 TFs; this exact short setup won repeatedly in the attribution. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold across all TFs (29-30) with top-trader pos ratio 1.94 (strong long positioning) and funding z -1.52 — a washed-out oversold bounce would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 155.83; stop above intraday structure/recent swing at 159.60 (~2.42% / within 24h RV); stretch target down at 151.65, a reach toward the 5d-low zone, ~2.68% = ~1.1x stop distance, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold limits downside follow-through, but momentum+flow favor the short modestly.
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