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BTCUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 81,956 and hit its target at 80,560 after 12.1 hours, closing at +1.70%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 14:20 |
| Entry | 81,956 |
| Stop-loss | 83,120 |
| Take-profit 1 | 81,118.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 80,560 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 80,560 |
| Realized P&L | +1.70% |
| Time open | 12.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF bear-aligned on 5m/1h (4h/15m mixed), 1h ADX 15.6 slope +2.7 firming off a low, choppiness 41.8 / ER_10 0.70 / ER_30 0.31, Hurst 0.42 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a down-drift that just turned moderately directional (ER_10 high) off a 5d low. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves negative across all horizons (-1.71/-1.92/-1.79%), OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -1.44, agg_oi_24h -3.42%), taker ratio 0.87 sell-skewed, 1h RSI oversold but no reclaim. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — price pressing fresh lows with OI unwinding (longs capitulating, decelerating), latest taker buckets sub-1.0, DVOL at 79th pctile confirming downside demand; this is a trend-aligned continuation while the 5d low gives way. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 29.7 oversold + top-trader pos ratio 1.47 still net-long could spark a mean-revert bounce reclaiming the ~82.5k shelf; if price reclaims that, the short is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 81,956; stop above the recent swing/invalidation at 83,120 (~1.42% / within rv_24h range); take_profit_1 at 80,560 structural extension below the 5d low (~1.70%, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold adds bounce risk, so meaningful p_expire; momentum favors continuation modestly.
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