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AAVEUSD short — 24 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 139.35 and hit its target at 136.15 after 35 minutes, closing at +2.30%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-24 13:42 |
| Entry | 139.35 |
| Stop-loss | 141.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 137.43 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 136.15 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 136.15 |
| Realized P&L | +2.30% |
| Time open | 35 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear_aligned), ADX_1h 46.5 slope +3.16 (strong, strengthening), choppiness 32 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.99 clean one-way down, Hurst 0.43 near-random, HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: One-sided short — fresh down impulse (net -0.72% 4h, -3.55% 12h, -5.83% 24h), OI bleeding (oi_change -6.83%, agg_oi -5.69%, oi_5m_z -0.67), bearish taker flow 0.87, at 5d/20d/90d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Trend-aligned short — strongest cluster is the full_bearish MTF stack + very high ADX 46.5 strengthening + pristine ER-10 0.99, confirming a clean directional decline into fresh lows; OI deleveraging on the way down supports continuation rather than short-covering. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold across all TFs (1h 26, 15m 25, 4h 28) plus z-score -2.63 and top-trader pos ratio 1.99 long skew — a mean-revert bounce/reclaim of ~141.5 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 139.35, stop beyond the intraday reclaim level at 141.95 (1.87% / ~0.78x the 24h RV band — within stop-width), take_profit_1 the stretch at 136.15 (next structural low extension, ~2.3% / 1.23x the stop distance, R:R ~1.23, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend strong but oversold raises bounce risk and expiry odds.
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