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AAVEUSD short — 24 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 134.99 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 136.63 with a price move of -1.21%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-24 15:12 |
| Entry | 134.99 |
| Stop-loss | 139.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 132.176 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 130.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 136.63 |
| Realized P&L | -1.21% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean, strong bear trend — mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4, ADX_1h 50.3 slope +4.76 (very strong, strengthening), choppiness 17.5 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.995 (clean one-way down), Hurst 0.42 near-random, HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: Clearly one-sided short — fresh accelerating down impulse (net -3.74% 4h, -6.30% 12h, -8.63% 24h), price pinned at 5d/20d/90d lows, OI bleeding. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Trend-aligned short — full_bearish stack with strengthening ADX, OI unwind (oi_change -8.11%, agg_oi -8.87%, oi_5m_z -1.02) confirms longs capitulating, bearish taker flow (0.69) and 1d/24h momentum all pointing down; this asset's bear-trend playbook has won 3 of last 4 recent same-regime signals. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold across all TFs (15m RSI 8.6, 1h 17.6) and z_score -3.35 — a sharp oversold mean-revert bounce reclaiming the broken level would invalidate the continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 134.99, stop above the local structure at 139.10 (~3.05% — within the elevated 24h RV/ATR), take_profit_1 at 130.30 (~3.47% below, R:R ~1.14, inside clamps), a reachable continuation level given avg 24h traversal 2.70% and fresh impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: trend strong but oversold tension caps TP probability and keeps p_expire meaningful.
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