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BTCUSD short — 24 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 80,178 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 80,400.5 with a price move of -0.28%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-24 14:42 |
| Entry | 80,178 |
| Stop-loss | 81,520 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,159.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78,480 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 80,400.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.28% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all EMA bear-aligned), 1h ADX 47.4 (slope -0.87, strong but easing), 4h ADX 25, choppiness 41.6, ER_10 0.58 clean recent leg, Hurst 0.48 neutral, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a genuine, strong bear trend pressing fresh lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear SHORT lean — net moves negative across all horizons (-0.56/-0.97/-1.93%), price sits at 5d/20d/90d low (-5.45% from high, +0.0% from low), z_score -2.06. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full_bearish 4/4 stack with high ADX and OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.19, agg_oi_24h +0.85, momentum accelerating_up) = fresh shorts conviction-building as price breaks down, taker ratio 0.87 sell-skewed, agg 4h liqs 98.7% longs getting flushed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold (15m 24.4, 5m 31.8) plus top-trader pos ratio 1.69 long — a sharp relief bounce reclaiming the broken level would invalidate; but stacked against the regime that's a fade, not a reversal signal. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 80,178; stop above the recent swing/invalidation at 81,520 (~1.67% = ~0.64x the 2.4% ADR, inside vol budget); take_profit_1 at 78,480 structural downside leg (~2.12% = ~1.27x stop distance, R:R ~1.27, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but oversold stretch + macro risk-off already partly priced tempers it.
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