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AAVEUSD short — 5 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 127.98 and stopped out at 131.25 after 56 minutes, closing at -2.56%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-05 23:38 |
| Entry | 127.98 |
| Stop-loss | 131.25 |
| Take-profit 1 | 125.592 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 124 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 131.25 |
| Realized P&L | -2.56% |
| Time open | 56 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bearish 4/4 but ADX_1h 16.3 slope -1.9 (weak, fading), choppiness 44.7 (mid), ER-30 0.14 (noisy nets-nowhere), Hurst 0.37 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a fully bear-stacked but low-trend-quality, chop-prone tape in a fresh down-impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net_move -2.3%/4h, -3.5%/12h, -3.0%/24h, full bearish EMA stack, OI bleeding hard (-11.1% 24h, agg -11.7%, oi_15m_z -2.14 accelerating_down). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the dominant cluster is flow/OI: price falling while OI collapses and taker ratio sub-1 (0.91), confirming longs capitulating into the down-move, consistent with 3 prior AAVE shorts that won on this exact OI-bleed + fresh-down-impulse signature. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 2.17 (strongly long and rising +0.13/4h) plus Hurst 0.37 mean-reverting and funding_z 1.37 crowded-long warn of a snapback; a reclaim of ~130.5 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 127.98, stop above invalidation at 131.25 (2.56% / ~1.5x the 1.75% 1h ATR, within 24h traversal of 3.78%); take_profit_1 at 124.00 (3.11% / 1.22x stop distance, R:R ~1.21, a structural stretch toward the 5d-low zone, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned flow but weak ADX + top-trader-long + mean-reversion Hurst temper it.
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