BTCUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 76,273.8 and hit its target at 77,417.5 after 1 hours, closing at +1.50%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 07:26 |
| Entry | 76,273.8 |
| Stop-loss | 74,980 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77,417.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78,180 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.47 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 77,417.5 |
| Realized P&L | +1.50% |
| Time open | 1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, all TFs EMA bull_aligned, ADX_1h 70.1 with +2.32 slope (extreme trend, still strengthening), choppiness 31.0 (strongly trending), ER_10 0.70/ER_30 0.61 (clean one-way), Hurst 0.60 persistence, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a powerful, intact bull trend up +9.6% on the day pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean with the dominant HTF trend; only caveats are stretched RSI (4h 93.8, 1h 83.4) and rolling z +3.40. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — oi_momentum accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +2.81, +7.7% 24h), top_trader pos_ratio 1.73 (leaning long), fresh BTC ETF inflow $606M, DXY soft (-1.2% 5d), macro tailwind; the trend engine has printed a run of 2%+ winners in this exact regime. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 93.8 on 4h and z +3.4 signal exhaustion — a sharp mean-reversion pullback below the 15m EMA stack would invalidate the continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 74,980 below the recent breakout shelf (~1.7% risk, within the 3.9% 7d range), take_profit_1 78,180 stretch to fresh highs (~2.5% / ~1.5x risk, inside 4% clamp) reachable given avg_move_24h 2.09% and current 9.5% daily thrust. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched, so meaningful pullback risk.
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