BTCUSD long — 25 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 81,010.6 and stopped out at 79,340 after 7.4 hours, closing at -2.06%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 02:28 |
| Entry | 81,010.6 |
| Stop-loss | 79,340 |
| Take-profit 1 | 82,114.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 82,850 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 79,340 |
| Realized P&L | -2.06% |
| Time open | 7.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish (all TFs EMA bull_aligned), 4h ADX 59.4 extreme + 1h ADX 27.6 with +4.46 slope firming, choppiness 45.7, ER_10 0.57 (clean near-term), Hurst 0.53, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a strong, re-accelerating HTF bull trend (net +2.83%/4h, +4.48%/24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend, momentum and flow all point up. 3. THESIS: trend + flow + positioning confluence — full_bullish stack across 4 TFs, OI +5.84% 24h with oi_z ~+1.5, taker ratio 1.09 (buyers pressing), top_trader_pos_ratio 2.04 (heavily long), price at 5d/20d/90d highs printing new ground, funding still benign (z -0.17), leaving room to run. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across every TF (73-80) and rolling_z +1.57 near-vertical — a blow-off reversal / failure to hold the breakout would invalidate. 5. LEVELS: entry 81,010; stop below the recent breakout shelf at 79,340 (~2.06% risk, within the ~5.5% 7d range and rv character); stretch TP at 82,850 (~2.27% reward, R:R ~1.1, inside clamps) — a reachable extension given 3.05% typical 24h traversal. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched/overbought tempers p_tp1.
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