ETHUSD long — 25 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,529.8 and stopped out at 2,489.5 after 1.3 hours, closing at -1.59%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 02:28 |
| Entry | 2,529.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,489.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,561.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,582 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.29 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,489.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.59% |
| Time open | 1.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), 4h ADX towering 52/RSI 71.6 confirming a strong HTF uptrend, ADX_1h 21.5 slope +1.95 (genuine trend, mildly strengthening), ER-10 0.55 but ER-30 0.22 with choppiness 60.7 — real bull structure with mixed near-term efficiency; Hurst 0.57, HMM calm — bull_trend near 5d/20d/90d highs (all at +0.000, sitting right at highs). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — every EMA stack bullish, price pinned at all local highs, +3.4% on 24h, top-trader position ratio long-heavy. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment (4/4 EMAs, 4h ADX 52) reinforced by positioning — top_trader_pos_ratio 1.78 long-heavy, taker ratio 1.13, agg_oi +5.8% and ETH ETF inflow +$24.7M; price at 5d/20d/90d highs with momentum. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across 5m/15m/4h plus oi_momentum accelerating_down (oi_change_recent_half -2.1%) and top_trader_pos_ratio_4h_chg -0.048 warn of a fading push — a rejection back below ~2500 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2529.83; stop below the recent consolidation/invalidation at 2489.5 (~1.6% risk, within 24h ATR range of ~4%); stretch TP at 2582.0 (~2.06% reward, R:R ~1.28x, inside clamps) — an honest extension into fresh-high territory. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned longs at highs win often but overbought + oi decelerating cap it.
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