BTCUSD short — 13 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,430.9 and hit its target at 62,980.4 after 37 minutes, closing at +0.71%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 16:09 |
| Entry | 63,430.9 |
| Stop-loss | 64,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,980.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,680 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 62,980.4 |
| Realized P&L | +0.71% |
| Time open | 37 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (5m mixed, 15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned), ADX_1h 13.0 slope -1.19, adx_20 11.3, choppiness 62.9, ER_10 0.37 / ER_30 0.19, Hurst 0.37 (mean-reversion), HMM calm — a low-efficiency chop tape with a mild bearish tilt on higher TFs. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — 15m/1h/4h EMA all bear_aligned, fresh down-impulse (net_4h -0.40%, net_12h -0.40%), 1h taker ratio 0.866 (sell-heavy), OI accelerating_down; but top-traders are net long (pos ratio 1.54) and rolling z -1.79 (stretched down) temper it. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment (three EMA stacks bear) reinforced by flow — oi_momentum accelerating_down, oi_5m/15m z negative, taker sell-heavy — a fading-longs down-drift; not a clean trend (ADX chop-grade) so keep it modest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z -1.79 plus price sitting +0.11% off 5d/20d/90d low and Hurst 0.37 mean-reversion means a snap-back reclaim above ~63,900 invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,430; stop above the recent swing/reclaim at 64,180 (~0.99R distance, well inside rv_24h 20.8% / atr_4h 0.69%); take_profit_1 at 62,700, a probe of the 5d low structure, ~1.15% below entry, R:R ~0.97 — nudge target to 62,690 to clear 1.0R. 6. EXPECTATION: chop-grade trend and stretched-down z mean meaningful expire/reversal risk.
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