SOLUSD short — 14 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 75.4048 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 75.458 with a price move of -0.07%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-14 13:28 |
| Entry | 75.4048 |
| Stop-loss | 76.62 |
| Take-profit 1 | 74.5739 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 74.02 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 75.458 |
| Realized P&L | -0.07% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 — 5m/15m EMA stacks bear-aligned, 1h/4h mixed; ADX_1h 18.5 (rising slope +3.1 but sub-20), adx_20 12.3, Hurst 0.42 (mean-reverting), choppiness 50.6, ER10/30 ~0.20 (nets nowhere), HMM calm — a bear-tilted transitional/choppy tape with weak directionality. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is down (net -0.11% 4h, -0.92% 12h, -1.01% 24h), taker 0.815 sell-heavy latest bucket, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -0.67, agg_oi_24h -0.73%), fear_greed 29 — modest short lean, though top-trader pos ratio 1.60 leans long against it. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI accelerating_down while price bleeds and taker ratio sub-1 signals longs unwinding into weakness, trend-aligned with the bear-stacked 5m/15m and negative 12/24h net moves. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 1.60 (accounts 2.67) is stubbornly long and a reclaim of ~76.6 (the 4h EMA zone) with buy-side taker flip would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 75.40, stop above 5d-low structure and recent swing at 76.62 (~1.6% / ~0.8x atr_pct_4h*24h span), stretch target 74.02 down toward the 5d-low retest (~1.8% / ~1.1x stop distance, R:R ~1.15, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: choppy low-ADX tape with real expire risk — p_tp1 41, p_sl 36, p_expire 23.
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