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BTCUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 82,484.8 and stopped out at 83,850 after 3.3 hours, closing at -1.66%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 02:05 |
| Entry | 82,484.8 |
| Stop-loss | 83,850 |
| Take-profit 1 | 81,509.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 80,860 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 83,850 |
| Realized P&L | -1.66% |
| Time open | 3.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF bear-aligned on 5m/15m/1h (alignment 4/4, labeled mixed only because 4h EMA still mixed), 1h ADX 26.3 slope +1.8 (genuine trend, firming), choppiness 47 / ER_10 ~0 but ER_30 0.14, Hurst 0.46, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a down-trend pressing lower with ADX firming. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves negative across 12h/24h (-0.06/-1.56%), price -2.0% from 5d high, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.61, oi_15m_z -1.63) with aggregate OI bleeding -1.9% — longs leaving as price falls, classic trend continuation. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+OI confluence — bear EMA stack across lower TFs with rising ADX, plus accelerating_down OI unwind confirming distribution; the latest 1h taker ratio 1.54 is a mild bounce but net flow context stays down. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 1.63 (heavily long) and funding mildly positive with 1h taker 1.54 could fuel a short-squeeze reclaim back above the 5d-high area ~84.2k, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 82,484; stop above the recent swing/5d-high shelf at 83,850 (~1.66% / within the ~1.07% avg-24h traversal but inside 1.5x RV given 42.6 RV); stretch target 80,860 (~1.97%, R:R ~1.19) at the 5d-low/prior support shelf, reachable within 24h given avg 24h move ~1.07% and elevated RV pctile. 6. EXPECTATION: trend+OI favor downside but 1h taker bounce and crowded top-trader longs cap conviction; p_tp1 44, p_sl 36, p_expire 20.
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