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ETHUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,477.9 and stopped out at 2,528 after 3 hours, closing at -2.02%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 02:20 |
| Entry | 2,477.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,528 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,447.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,427 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,528 |
| Realized P&L | -2.02% |
| Time open | 3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf full_bearish 4/4, 1h ADX 34.8 slope +4.0 (strengthening), choppiness 34.4 (<38 strongly trending), ER-10 0.21/ER-30 0.17 (noisy but net-down), HMM calm hi-conf; price z -1.12, net_move_24h -2.69%. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — momentum negative 12h/24h, OI bleeding hard (oi_15m_z -1.0, accelerating_down, agg_oi_24h -3.79%), near 20d/90d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full_bearish 4/4 with strengthening ADX and accelerating_down OI is the cleanest cluster; the asset is grinding to new lows with no reclaim. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the one caution is the fresh buy-side bounce — taker_1h 1.77 (strongest bucket in 24h), net_move_4h +0.51%, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.55 (longs leaning) and 5m RSI 73.8 overbought — a short-term squeeze into resistance could invalidate; I treat this as a sell-the-rip entry. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2477.88; stop above the 5d-high retrace / recent swing at 2528 (~2.0% above, within rv range given atr_pct_1h 0.88 / 4h 1.36 and avg_daily_range 3.87%); stretch target down at 2427 (~2.05% below, ~1.0x stop distance) toward the 5d-low zone. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors downside but the fresh bounce raises squeeze risk and keeps p_expire meaningful.
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