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ETHUSD short — 25 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,326.1 and hit its target at 2,293.6 after 17.4 hours, closing at +1.39%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-25 10:27 |
| Entry | 2,326.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,368.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,293.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,272 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,293.6 |
| Realized P&L | +1.39% |
| Time open | 17.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf_alignment 4/4 full_bearish (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear EMA), 1h ADX 34.9 slope +2.4 (trend firming), choppiness 44.5 (trending-side of mid), ER-10 0.47 recent cleanliness, Hurst 0.41 mean-reverting on longer path, HMM calm hi-conf. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — full bearish stack plus negative momentum all horizons (-0.56%/4h, -0.81%/12h, -1.78%/24h). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF trend cluster is dominant (4/4 bear EMA + rising ADX), reinforced by sell-side taker flow (1h ratio 0.76) and sagging OI (agg -2.79%, oi_momentum decelerating, oi_5m_z -0.66) — distribution unwinding into the drop; price z-score -2.18 and near 5d/90d low is a mild counter note but the trend is unbroken. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price at -2.18 z and +0.96% off 90d low with top-trader pos ratio 1.68 (longs still loaded) — an oversold reclaim bounce back above ~2360 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2326.07, stop above recent structure/invalidation at 2368.5 (~1.82%, within 24h ATR given 4h atr 1.47% and avg 24h move 1.46%), stretch target 2272.0 (~2.32%, ~1.27x stop distance, structural push toward prior low, inside 4% clamp). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned with modest oversold risk of a bounce.
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