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DOGEUSD long — 13 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on DOGEUSD entered at 0.083407 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.0843 with a price move of +1.07%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-13 08:41 |
| Entry | 0.083407 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08175 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.084753 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.08565 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.35 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.0843 |
| Realized P&L | +1.07% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (5m/1h bear_aligned, 15m/4h mixed), 1h ADX 12.6 with positive slope +3.4 but still sub-15 chop, ER-10 0.59 vs ER-30 0.25 (noisy longer path), choppiness 37 (edge of trending), Hurst 0.45, HMM calm 99.96%, RV at 7.7th pctile — compressed low-vol chop with a mild down-lean near 5d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: mild short lean on trend but heavily oversold and OI collapsing — this is closer to washed-out downside; net_24h -1.65%, sitting +0.6% off 5d/20d/90d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: RSI deeply oversold across 5m (13.9), 15m (14.3), 1h (27) with price at multi-period lows, z -1.43, and OI puking (oi_5m_z -7.4, agg_oi -2.3%) — that's capitulation, not fresh distribution; top-traders positioned heavily long (pos ratio 3.45), funding negative z -1.6, taker ratio ~1.0 balanced — the down-momentum is exhausting and a mean-reversion bounce off the 5d low is the better R:R than chasing short into a sub-15 ADX oversold hole. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a clean break below the 5d low (0.0829) on rising OI flips this to trend continuation and invalidates the reversion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.083407, stop below 5d low structure at 0.08175 (~2.0% stop, within rv_24h 24% intraday range), target the reclaim toward the 4h mid at 0.08555 (~1.7% up), R:R ~0.85 — tighten target to keep R:R>=1.0 → 0.08565 gives ~1.05x. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce base rate is decent but chop makes expiry meaningful.
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