HYPEUSD short — 9 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on HYPEUSD entered at 53.93 and stopped out at 55.05 after 13.4 hours, closing at -2.08%.
| Asset | HYPEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-09 22:38 |
| Entry | 53.93 |
| Stop-loss | 55.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 53.252 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 52.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 55.05 |
| Realized P&L | -2.08% |
| Time open | 13.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed with 5m/4h bear-aligned and 1h/15m mixed; 1h ADX 14.4 (chop territory), choppiness 55, ER-10 0.11 (very noisy path), Hurst 0.44 mildly mean-reverting, HMM calm — a low-vol chop tape with a soft bearish tilt, RV in the 14th percentile. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence tilts modestly short — net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h (-1.32/-1.14/-2.12%), OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -4.18, agg OI -2.66%, decelerating), 5m RSI 24.6 oversold but that's typical of continued downside pressure inside chop. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum + OI cluster favors short — persistent negative net move plus sharp OI unwind (oi_5m_z_24h -4.18) signals longs bleeding out; latest taker ratio 0.71 shows sellers pressing into the close. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 1.50 (long-heavy) and oversold 5m RSI could trigger a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims the 1h EMAs — that invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 53.93 at 5d/20d/90d low (dist_from_5d_high -6.7%, sitting on low); stop above recent intraday resistance at 55.05 (~2.1% up, near 1x rv_24h range); target down to 52.85 (~2.0% down), R:R ~0.96 — nudge target to 52.80 for R:R ~1.0 into fresh-low continuation. 6. EXPECTATION: chop + oversold caps downside conviction; p_tp1 40, p_sl 37, p_expire 23.
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