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DOGEUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.078744 and stopped out at 0.08035 after 22 minutes, closing at -2.04%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 17:43 |
| Entry | 0.078744 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08035 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.077299 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.076335 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.08035 |
| Realized P&L | -2.04% |
| Time open | 22 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h all bear_aligned (4h mixed but RSI 25.8 oversold), 1h ADX 46.7 slope +0.20 (strong trend, barely still firming), ADX-20 40.5, ER-10 0.34/ER-30 0.33, choppiness 49.7 (mid), Hurst 0.42 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 99.97% — a firm down-leg, price z -2.04 sitting right at 5d/20d/90d lows (+0.00% off all lows). 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — bearish EMA stack across three TFs, strong ADX, fresh 24h low, net_24h -4.23% with continuation into net_4h -0.79%. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend structure — three-TF bear stack with ADX ~47 and price making fresh lows, corroborated by falling OI (oi_15m_z -2.11, agg_oi -4.24%, decelerating) and taker ratio 0.876 (sell-heavy) — this exact template won three of the last shorts on DOGE. 4. PRE-MORTEM: heavily long-tilted top traders (pos ratio 3.34) plus deeply oversold 4h RSI 25.8 and z -2.04 raise reclaim/bounce risk; a reclaim back above 0.0800 with momentum invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent structure at 0.08035 (~2.0% risk, within the ~4.4% 7d range); TP stretch at 0.07610 (~1.7% reward, ~0.86x-clamp-safe RR ≈ 1.06) — a reachable extension of the down-leg within 24h given avg_move_24h 2.11%. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh-low continuation with strong ADX favors follow-through but oversold/crowded-long-top-trader risk tempers it.
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