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ETHUSD long — 22 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,760.4 and stopped out at 2,712 after 12.9 hours, closing at -1.75%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-22 23:23 |
| Entry | 2,760.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,712 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,796.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,820 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,712 |
| Realized P&L | -1.75% |
| Time open | 12.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish MTF (4/4 EMA stacks), 1h ADX 26 but slope -3.3 (trend intact yet fading), 4h ADX 45.9 with 4h RSI 70.7 overbought, ER-10 0.05/ER-30 0.08 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 58.7 (range-bound edge), Hurst 0.63 (persistent), HMM calm 0.999 — a mature uptrend stalling into consolidation at the 5d/20d/90d high. 2. LEAN CHECK: trend and positioning still lean long (bull EMA stack, top-trader pos ratio 1.50), so I take the long side over a stretched fade. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-alignment cluster (full_bullish 4/4, Hurst 0.63, top-trader long 1.50) plus price pinned within 0.8% of the 5d/20d/90d high — buyers control the higher timeframe. 4. PRE-MORTEM: contradicting evidence is real — taker ratio 0.82 (sellers heavier), OI -1.24%/agg OI -0.40% (deleveraging), ADX slope negative, 4h RSI overbought, rolling z +1.69 stretched; a rejection off the high flips this quickly. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2760.38, stop below the recent consolidation shelf at 2712 (~1.75% risk, within the ~2.7% 24h traversal), stretch TP at 2820 (~2.16% / ~1.24x risk) into the prior 5d high zone. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought/stalling with heavy sellers caps upside odds; p_tp1 42, p_sl 37, p_expire 21.
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