ETHUSD short — 25 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,857.5 and stopped out at 1,878.5 after 17.3 hours, closing at -1.13%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-25 07:03 |
| Entry | 1,857.5 |
| Stop-loss | 1,878.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,838.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,826 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,878.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.13% |
| Time open | 17.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/1h bear-aligned, only 4h bull), ADX_1h 31.8 but slope negative (-0.46, fading), Hurst 0.49 random-walk, choppiness 67.6 (range-bound), funding mildly positive (z +0.67) — a bear-tilted but decelerating tape, not a clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is down (net -1.98% 24h, -0.30% 12h) with lower-TF bear stacks and taker 0.84 (sell-dominant), while top-traders sit long (pos ratio 1.35) into weakness — the tradeable lean is short with the lower-TF trend. 3. THESIS: 5m/15m/1h all bear-aligned + 1h RSI 38.5 + taker buy/sell 0.84 + falling OI (-2.5% 24h, oi_z -0.77, decelerating) show sellers in control with no bid absorption; macro risk-off (SPX -1.2%, VIX up, F&G 27 Fear) reinforces downside. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits +0.04% off the 5d low with agg long-liq share 0.71 — a capitulation-flush reclaim above ~1875 (1h EMA cluster) would flip the near-term stack and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the reclaim zone at 1878.5 (beyond 1h EMA/recent pivot), entry at mark 1857.47, stretch TP at 1826 (below 5d/20d low toward next structural support), giving ~31.5 reward vs ~21 risk = ~1.5R. 6. EXPECTATION: with fresh-low proximity risking a bounce but bear flow intact — p_tp1 40, p_sl 33, p_expire 27.
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