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ETHUSD short — 13 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,464.8 and stopped out at 2,497.5 after 2.7 hours, closing at -1.33%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-13 13:26 |
| Entry | 2,464.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,497.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,439.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,422 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,497.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.33% |
| Time open | 2.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear EMA, 1h mixed, 4h still bull), 1h ADX 27.5 slope +7.5 (strengthening) and ADX-20 19.2, choppiness 34.8 (leaning trend), ER-10 0.62 (clean short-frame), Hurst 0.26 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a firming down-move off a bull-tilted 4h, all net moves negative (-0.75% 4h/-2.4% 12h/-3.1% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean survives — momentum, flow and OI all point down. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow+OI confluence — taker ratio 0.88 (sell-heavy), OI momentum accelerating_down with oi_5m_z -1.99, agg OI -3.46%, top-trader pos ratio ticking lower (4h chg -0.032); price selling off with rising ADX confirms trend-aligned short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 25 / 1h RSI 27.8 are oversold near the 5d low (+2.1% off it) — a mean-reversion bounce (Hurst 0.26) would invalidate; a reclaim of ~2490 with momentum flips this. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2464.80, stop 2497.5 (above the 4h bull structure / recent consolidation, ~1.33% risk, within 24h RV), target 2422.0 stretch (~1.73% / ~1.3x risk, toward the 5d-low zone), R:R ~1.3. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold RSI caps downside continuation odds, keep meaningful p_expire.
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