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SOLUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 105.8347 and stopped out at 108.65 after 20.8 hours, closing at -2.66%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 11:20 |
| Entry | 105.8347 |
| Stop-loss | 108.65 |
| Take-profit 1 | 104.1039 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 102.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 108.65 |
| Realized P&L | -2.66% |
| Time open | 20.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 4/4 bear across 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), 1h ADX 34.4 but slope -0.18 (strong yet barely fading), ER10 0.085 / ER30 0.33, choppiness 37.9 (just below 38 = trending), Hurst 0.42 mean-reverting, HMM calm 1.0 — a bear trend that has stalled near-term after a sharp drop. 2. LEAN CHECK: net -4.66%/24h and -2.51%/4h with fresh downside momentum, but z-score -1.60, RSI 28-30 oversold on 5m/15m, price +2.8% off 5d/20d/90d_low — the trend is DOWN but extended and oversold; SHORT lean with the trend, tempered by stretch. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+momentum — 4/4 bear EMA stack, deeply negative net moves across horizons, taker ratio 0.917 sell-heavy, OI falling (oi_5m_z -1.29, agg_oi -2.36%) as price falls = healthy downtrend, RV in 95th pctile confirming active selling. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oversold RSI (28-30) + z -1.60 + top-trader pos ratio 2.15 (longs dominant and firming +0.10 4h) could spark a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims and invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 105.83, stop above a near-term reclaim level at 108.65 (~2.66% / within 1h atr/rv range), stretch target down at 102.95 (~2.72% below entry, R:R ~1.02) toward the next support shelf, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors continuation but oversold stretch caps edge — p_tp1 44, p_sl 37, p_expire 19.
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