PAXGUSD long — 14 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,387.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,374.7 with a price move of -0.30%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-14 13:43 |
| Entry | 4,387.9 |
| Stop-loss | 4,360.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,407.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,421 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,374.7 |
| Realized P&L | -0.30% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull_aligned (ADX 30.9 strong) with 5m bull_aligned too, but 1h/15m mixed (1h ADX 18.6 soft, slope negative), mtf 2/4, choppiness 42.5 neutral, ER-10 0.72 (clean recent path) but ER-30 0.09 (nets nowhere long-run), Hurst 0.44 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a macro gold uptrend consolidating with a fresh clean up-leg over last 10 bars. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans long — macro gold +0.81% 1d / +1.34% 5d, DXY soft (-0.20%), us10y down, net_move +0.66% 4h / +1.54% 12h positive momentum, top-trader pos ratio 2.13 heavily long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — macro gold bid (DXY down, yields down, fear-greed 29 favors gold hedge), 4h bull stack intact, recent 12h net move +1.54% with ER-10 0.72 showing a clean up-leg, and PAXG's own 30d track record is the best in the universe (71.2% wr on longs). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought on 5m/15m (69.8/74.0) and z-score +0.98 near top of range — a mean-reverting fade (Hurst 0.44) back below 4,370 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4,387.87; stop below the recent 4h consolidation shelf at 4,360.5 (~0.62% risk, ~0.4x rv_24h, structural); stretch target 4,421.0 (~0.75% reward, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps) at the 5d-high retest zone, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 0.76%. 6. EXPECTATION: gold's low vol and constructive macro favor tp1 but overbought near-term caps it.
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