XAUTUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on XAUTUSD entered at 4,606.4 and stopped out at 4,573 after 12.1 hours, closing at -0.73%.
| Asset | XAUTUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 17:05 |
| Entry | 4,606.4 |
| Stop-loss | 4,573 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,629.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,645 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,573 |
| Realized P&L | -0.73% |
| Time open | 12.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean gold bull_trend — MTF 4/4 full_bullish (5m/15m/1h/4h all EMA bull_aligned), 1h ADX 38.7 with positive slope +2.02 (strengthening), choppiness 40.5 (trending), ER-10/30 ~0.55, Hurst 0.57 persistent, HMM calm at full confidence; macro gold +1.27% 1d / +4.18% 5d, DXY soft 98.76 (-1.2% 5d). 2. LEAN CHECK: long — higher-TF trend, macro tailwind, positioning all point up; no coherent short case. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + macro cluster is dominant — gold spot +2.48% 24h with DXY soft and US10y easing, price at 5d/20d/90d highs (dist -0.010%), top-trader pos ratio 1.61 net long, per-asset WR 68.4% with recent same-regime longs all winning. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought (4h 79.8, 1h 76.1) + rolling z +3.17 + RV 7d at 98th pctile signal exhaustion risk; a failure to hold 4590 stalls momentum. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4606.45, stop 4573.0 (below intraday shelf, ~0.73% ≈ 0.8x the 0.93% avg 24h traversal), take_profit_1 4645.0 (stretch, ~0.84% / ~1.15x stop distance, above the round 4640 breakout extension, RR ~1.15). 6. EXPECTATION: trend intact but overbought/stretched, so meaningful expire/pullback risk.
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