PAXGUSD long — 28 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,469.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,460 with a price move of -0.22%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 16:23 |
| Entry | 4,469.9 |
| Stop-loss | 4,433 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,496.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,514.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,460 |
| Realized P&L | -0.22% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull_aligned but 1h mixed and 5m/15m bear_aligned (alignment 2/4), ADX 19.6 slope +4.5, choppiness 34.6 (leaning trending), ER-10 0.81 (clean recent one-way move) but ER-30 0.30, Hurst 0.35 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a macro gold uptrend just hit a sharp intraday flush down (-2.8% 24h, -2.6% 4h). 2. LEAN CHECK: two pulls — macro gold sharply negative today (spot -2.72% 1d), price at 5d/20d/90d low with z-score -2.18 and RSI oversold across all TFs (5m 17.8, 1h 23.4); the flush is fresh and one-way, but oversold extremes on a mean-reverting (Hurst 0.35) macro asset with top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.88, rising +0.23 over 4h) favor a bounce reclaim over chasing the dump. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: modest long — z-score -2.18 and RSI 17-27 across the stack signal exhaustion at the low, Hurst 0.35 mean-reverting, top-trader positioning stacked long and accelerating; a reclaim off the 90d low is the higher-probability path than continuation of an already-extended -2.8% flush. 4. PRE-MORTEM: if gold spot keeps bleeding (DXY firm, no reclaim), price slices through the 90d low and the oversold gets more oversold — bear continuation invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4469.95; stop 4433.0 below the fresh 90d low (~0.83% ≈ 0.5x rv_24h, structural invalidation); TP1 stretch at 4514.5 (~1.0% up, R:R ~1.2), a reclaim toward the broken intraday shelf, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 0.72% and elevated RV. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reversion edge is real but modest against a firm downtrend, so honest split.
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