PAXGUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,379.1 and hit its target at 4,356.2 after 4.5 hours, closing at +0.52%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 08:33 |
| Entry | 4,379.1 |
| Stop-loss | 4,413.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,356.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,340.9 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 4,356.2 |
| Realized P&L | +0.52% |
| Time open | 4.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMAs bear_aligned (4h mixed), regime bear_trend, ADX 21.1 1h (slope +1.62, mildly strengthening) with 4h ADX 48, choppiness 38.9 (trending edge), ER-10 0.61 (fairly clean) / ER-30 0.15, Hurst 0.43, HMM calm — a macro gold pullback in an intact intraday downtrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — macro gold spot -1.27% 1d, net_move -1.07% 4h / -1.54% 12h, sitting at the 5d/20d/90d low. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack across 5m/15m/1h, price pinned to session lows, rolling z -2.05 shows stretched-down but downside momentum still fresh with agg_oi -0.47% (positions unwinding) and gold macro -3.6% 5d driving; the counter cue is oversold RSI (~22-28) so I keep the target modest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deep oversold RSI + z-score -2.05 + top-trader pos ratio 2.76 (heavy longs) risks a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims the intraday range and invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4379.07; stop 4413.50 above recent intraday structure (~0.79% risk, ~0.5x the ~1.7% avg daily range, sized for lower gold vol); take_profit_1 4340.90 (~0.87% below, R:R ~1.1) at a reachable extension of the low. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold tape caps follow-through; p_tp1 41 / p_sl 34 / p_expire 25.
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