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SOLUSD short — 2 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 118.4827 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 119.73 with a price move of -1.05%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-02 19:05 |
| Entry | 118.4827 |
| Stop-loss | 120.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 116.9931 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 116 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 119.73 |
| Realized P&L | -1.05% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 alignment (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 25.0 but slope -2.4 (fading), ER10 0.58 / ER30 0.027 / choppiness 36.6 (recent push nets nowhere over 30 bars), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0, F&G 72 Greed — chop with HTF bull structure but a fresh near-term bear impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: mild SHORT lean — net -1.27%/4h, -2.70%/12h fresh downside momentum, OI accelerating_down (oi_change_recent_half -6.1%, oi_5m_z -0.54), taker 1h 0.947 (sellers), price -4.1% off 5d high; this names a side despite HTF bull. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the OI-unwinding-into-falling-price cluster (accelerating_down OI + sub-1.0 taker + fresh negative 4h/12h net) is a longs-capitulating-into-weakness read; funding_z +1.33 / momentum +2.36 crowded-long adds fuel for a continued flush as late longs get squeezed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 2.54 (and rising +0.09/4h) is heavily long and the 1h/4h EMA stacks are bull — a reclaim of ~119.8 with momentum invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 118.48, stop 120.35 beyond the near-term reclaim pivot (~1.58% ≈ 0.8x the 1.83% 24h traversal), target 116.00 structural support toward the 5d-low zone (2.09% ≈ 1.3x stop distance, R:R ~1.33, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum favors continuation but HTF bull + heavy top-trader longs cap conviction and raise expire odds in chop.
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